Estimates game: As China's population declines, India set to become most populous country

India may have surpassed China as the most populated country, according to estimates of World Population Review (WPR) and Macrotrends. According to figures released by the WPR, India's population stood at 1.417 billion at the end of 2022. Notably, China had 1.41175 billion people at the end of last year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on January 17, 2023.

National Bureau of Statistics further stated that China's population in 2022 fell by 850,000 from 2021. The United Nations has projected India to surpass China and become the world’s most populous country in 2023. Meanwhile, the WPR said India has already touched a population figure of 1,422,746,280.

The World Population Prospects 2022 report of the United Nations stated that more than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries - the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.

In India, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projects a total fertility rate of 1.29 births per woman in 2100 instead of 1.69 in the United Nations medium scenario.

In his January 18 report, Bloomberg Economist Eric Zhu referred to the minor recession that China is currently experiencing as a "growth crushing headwind for a long time". According to information made public by the National Statistics Bureau, China's population decreased by 8.5 lakh in 2022 compared to the previous year.