Covid's Fourth Wave to hit in Mid June, May stay till Oct 22
India may enter the fourth wave of Covid-19 in mid to late June, and the surge is to continue for about 4 months.
A recent study conducted by a team of scientists from IIT Kanpur has suggested that India may enter the fourth wave of Covid-19 in mid to late June, and the wave will continue to stay for about 4 months till October. The severity of the infection will be dependent upon the nature of the variant and the vaccination status across the country.
The study was conducted by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Mathematics department with the help of a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data on Zimbabwe. The study has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv, although it is yet to be peer-reviewed, reported Mint.
4th wave of Covid-19
The authors of the study said, “Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022 and ends on October 24, 2022. Moreover, the 99% confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15, 2022 to August 31, 2022."
Severity of 4th wave
The intensity of the virus in the fourth wave will be based on various factors like infectibility, fatality etc., said the authors. The study also said that the effect of vaccinations as first, second or booster dosage will also play an important role regarding the possibility of risk of infection, degree of infection and other issues related to the fourth wave.
