I
"The deep depressioncaused over southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea moved nearly northwards with a speed of 4 kmph, has now intensified into a cyclonic storm 'Biparjoy'. It may move towards northwards and turn slowly into a very severe cyclonic storm in next 12 hours and travel towards north to Northwest till it's landfall on Pakistan.
Obstruction to Monsoon Progression and Rainfall Distribution
Sea conditions are likely to be very high along and off the
Kerala-Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep-Maldives areas on June 6 and
Konkan-Goa-Maharashtra coasts from June 8 to June 10. Fishermen out at sea have
been advised to return to the coast.
The formation of the low-pressure system over the southeast
Arabian Sea is expected to significantlyinfluence the advent of the monsoon on the Kerala coast. The monsoon
onset over Kerala will bea meek and
mild one. It is expected to happen on June 8 or June 9.
The advancement of the monsoon deep inland has been obstructed by this depression created in the Arabian Sea. Hence , the monsoon winds may reach coastal parts but will struggle to reach beyond the Western Ghats. As a result of the cyclonic storm and a low pressure created in the Bay of Bengal, the southern peninsula willalso get rain.
Delayed Monsoon Arrival in Kerala and its Implications
The southwest monsoon generally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a diversion of about seven days. In mid-May, the(IMD) said monsoon might arrive in Kerala by June. Scientists said that delayed onset of monsoon over Kerala does not mean that the monsoon will reach other parts of the country late.
Normal Rainfall Predictions Despite El Nino Conditions
Despite the emergence of the El Nino conditions India is
expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season. The
Northwest Indiawill receive normal to
below-normal rainfall. East and northeast, central, and south peninsula might
receive normal rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long-period of 87 centimetres
in average.